4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy


Welcome to the 4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy. This strategy is aimed at
simplicity as well as high probability trades. I have been in the equity market for
almost ten years now and in the forex market for two years. I learned very early that
forex trading is not for the shaky ones. One must have a tested and definite trading
strategy as well as well organized discipline to follow the strategy and execute the
plan as to the letter. One must be exact and precise.
Therefore I paper traded for almost two years and read everything I could lay
my hands on. I bought books and courses. I attend a 5 day live web seminar. All this
did not help me at all as it did not fit my style of personality and I just did not seem to
connect with all this different strategies. Over two years of watching the graphs with
different indicators, moving averages etc. I started to get a feeling for the movement
and motion of the market especially the EurUsd around certain moving averages.
It wasn’t till late last year that I discover a setting with the MACD that gives
easy to read signals on a regular basis on a 4 hour timeframe. I like the 4 hour
timeframe as one are not glued to the screen full time.
If you look at FIG 1 below you will see that there were 14 signals over a
period of 5 weeks. Within that period of FIG 1 the signals given were pretty good.
There are times when some signals does not produce positive results. I then had to
work on a filter system to only let me take the best ones. I found that the MACD
when moving in a certain way produces a 95% accuracy. I will show you later how
the high probability trades look like.
In FIG 1 the signals are shown and FIG 2 shows that an entry is made after
the 4 hour bar has closed and at the opening of the next bar.
In FIG 3 another 19 deals were shown of which the last one was not finished
yet so out of a total of 18 trades 5 were wrong and 13 were right.
As it is a 4 hour strategy it means sometimes setting the alarm clock to catch
an entry in the early morning hours. What makes it nice is that one will know after the
close of a 4 hour bar whether the next 4 hour bar might close as a signal by just
following the MACD. Therefore one can set an alarm at that time.
Have a look at FIG 1 to 3.
Disclaimer:
As trading in the Forex market is very risky, the reader if going beyond this
point and applying the concepts and methods describing in this document do so on
his or her own will and risk. The writer and or anyone involved in the compiling of
this document will not be held responsible for any losses incurred by using the
methods described in this document as no money management nor stoploss levels are
discussed as it vary from trader to trader according to there own risk and capital
profiles.


This was just to see and get a feeling for the graphs. Let us start to set-up our charts.
Moving Averages:
First of all are the moving Averages that we are going to use.
1. 365 Exponential Moving Average (365EMA)
2. 200 Simple Moving Average (200SMA)
3. 89 Simple Moving Average (89SMA)
4. 21 Exponential Moving Average (21EMA)
5. 8 Exponential Moving Average (8EMA)
MACD:
MACD settings at
1. Fast EMA 5
2. Slow EMA 13
3. MACD EMA 1

Horizontal Lines:
Three sets of horizontal lines above and below zero should be drawn on the MACD
window at levels as well as one on zero
1. Level +0.0015
2. Level +0.0030
3. Level +0.0045
4. Level –0.0015
5. Level –0.0030
6. Level –0.0045
Your Graph should look like this: (Choose your own colour and styles)

The MACD moves in certain patterns that when recognized can be very profitable
trades. Let me show you the very important ones first. By not following every signal
but only the ones that gives high probability trades through certain MACD patterns
serves as a filter. The ones not familiar are not taken. This is the filter.

This pattern comes very regular especially A and D as the MACD has moved beyond
the 0.0045 level and are due for a correction and or trend reversal. B and C are trend
continuing patterns and are entered in the direction of the trend. Red circles indicates
entry signal and entry is made on the opening of the next bar.

This was a difficult month (Jan 2007)up to now but already 190 Pips up and a great
move is coming as the price is within a range for almost 8 days. Lets see if that will
happen.
Up to now I have only concentrated to give the signal on the MACD window so that
you will be able to recognize it. It is easy to see the formation after it has formed. It
takes a bit of practice to recognize it while it is forming. Lets look at a couple just to
see how they look when the trade is entered.

Let us look at the graph above. See how price levels play a roll in the support and
resistance of the price movement. Say we entered the trade at Entry above. Our first
profit target will be around our fast moving averages (8EMA and 21EMA). Our
second profit target will be around the slow moving averages(89SMA and365EMA).
Our third profit target will be at price level 1.2100 etc etc etc.
This is how you plan your trade in advance to take partial profits till you complete the
trade. Should there be a moving average or price level nearby and below your entry
level you must take note that the price might go and test them. So your stoploss must
be aware of that.
Again I ask you to study the movement of the price around the moving averages.
When the price are above the 89SMA the trend is normally up and visa versa. After
the price crosses the 89SMA it tends to pullback to the 21EMA before it carry on its
direction if it is a trend direction change otherwise it tend to test the 89SMA again and
then it runs over and across the 89SMA till it finds direction and then it pulls back to
the 21EMA before proceeding on its path.

Here are a live trade I did for someone in explaining how I trade. This is actual
e-mails that I did send. 25 January 2007 21:00 (GMT+2)
Hi
I took it with 30 pip stoploss and hope I can add to the Gbp
one earlier this week.
Greetings
The

The MACD pulled back to the Zero line and then closes lower which indicate a down
move.
“Got entry at 1.2955 and has set stoploss at breakeven at 1.2955 when
price did hit 1.2935. I am scared for a false breakout below support
but now the price can turnaround as I have a free ride.”

“Took 50% profit at 1.2920 and set other half stoploss at 1.2935”
“Hi
Amazing how it found support with Fibonacci. I wanted to do
this trade with you as it developed so that you can see how I go
about. I just had a feeling that the price is not going to go down to
1.2900 straight away so I applied fibonacci as there was no other
indicator between the entry price and 1.2900. One has to listen to
that little voice inside as well. I was stopped out on the other have
at 1.2935 so the total gain was 35 pips on 50% and 20 pips on the
other 50% for a total of 27.5 pips on full lot.
Not bad for an hour work.
Greetings”This trade however was a bit risky as it was a breakout trade after ten days
consolidation testing a trendline angling upwards. One has to evaluate the risk not
only in terms of pips but also in terms of strategy and chart pattern. After a breakout
the price very often turns back to test the breakout level and then that level becomes
either support or resistance in this case it becomes Eur resistance.

Stoploss have to be inside the breakout otherwise it can be triggered and then
sometimes it can be very big before entry signal is given by the MACD.
Here is what I normally do when the MACD shows a signal but the stoploss are to big
in relation to my capital or what I am comfortable with. I enter the trade in three
stages with my stoploss set at the same level.



I stopped counting the pips for the April 2006 testing as it completely
convinced me of the success of this method. I randomly tested it using previous years
and the results were amazing. Average of 300+ pips per month and then I only trade
the trades that gives signals at these times 17:00, 21:00 and 01:00 (GMT +2). It gives
between 8-10 deals per month using the mentioned timeframes.. (I use Metatrader and
data supply by MIG.)
If you use patterns in the MACD that occur regular that gives results and use
them every time they occur you will most definitely make money.
I haven’t discuss nor used trendlines so far in this document and when you add
them it will most definitely helps you in defining your exit levels. The entry level are
determine by the MACD but the exit or profit levels is determine by support and
resistance levels. I use the moving averages as described earlier as well as Fibonacci
levels and then most definitely trendlines and price levels. I normally take the daily
graph and draw the trendlines according to it and then go to the 4 hour graph. I make
them nice and thick so that I can see them. Then I draw the different price levels such
as 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100 etc. It is amazing to see how the price find support and or
resistance at these levels.
I hope that this document will help you on your way to financial independents.












1 commentaire:

  1. Thanks to strategies presented and wonderful indicators

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